Research

Selected Publications

  1. When Prediction Markets Disagree: Cross-Platform Dispersion and Equity Volatility in the 2024 U.S. Election
    Orhan Torul, Emrehan Aktuğ Finance Research Letters, 2026, 111, 110664 2026
    PDF DOI Online AppendixCodesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  2. Informational Inertia in a Decentralized Prediction Market: Evidence from the May 2024 CPI Leak
    Orhan Torul, Emrehan Aktuğ Finance Research Letters, 2026, 108, 110378 2026
    PDF DOI CodesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  3. Reflex without Persistence: The Dollar’s Multi-Day Safe Haven Reversal in 2025
    Orhan Torul Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, Forthcoming 2025
    Forthcoming PDF DOI CodesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  4. Intergenerational Income Mobility in Turkey
    Orhan Torul, Nizam Melikşah Demirtaş The Journal of Economic Inequality, 2024, 22(1), 185–209 2024
    PDF DOI Online AppendixSlidesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  5. The Evolution of Intergenerational Educational Mobility in Turkey
    Orhan Torul, Oğuz Öztunalı Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2022, 58(14), 4033–4049 2022
    PDF DOI Online AppendixSlidesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  6. Heterogeneity in Labor Income Profiles: Evidence from Turkey
    Orhan Torul, Emrehan Aktuğ and Tolga Umut Kuzubaş Empirical Economics, 2021, 60(5), 2557–2587 2021
    PDF DOI Online AppendixSlidesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  7. Norm Compliance, Enforcement, and the Survival of Redistributive Institutions
    Orhan Torul, Mehmet Yiğit Gürdal and Alexander Vostroknutov Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 2020, 178, 313–326 2020
    PDF DOI Online AppendixSlidesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  8. Education in a Heterogeneous-Agent Economy: Revisiting Transatlantic Differences
    Orhan Torul Journal of Human Capital, 2020, 14(2), 165–216 2020
    PDF DOI SlidesCodesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  9. Cross-Sectional Facts for Macroeconomists: Wage, Income and Consumption Inequality in Turkey
    Orhan Torul, Mehmet Nazım Tamkoç The Journal of Economic Inequality, 2020, 18(2), 239–259 2020
    PDF DOI Online AppendixInteractiveSlidesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  10. Optimal Ramsey Taxation with Endogenous Risk Aversion
    Orhan Torul, Orhan Erem Ateşağaoğlu Economics Letters, 2018, 171, 87–92 2018
    PDF DOI Online AppendixCodesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite

Working Papers

  1. Price Discovery Across Political Prediction Markets: Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
    Orhan Torul, Emrehan Aktuğ 2024
    PDF DOI DeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  2. The Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule: Evidence from Prediction Markets
    Orhan Torul, Emrehan Aktuğ
    PDF Link PDFDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  3. Calibration as a Channel for Discretization Error
    Orhan Torul
    PDF Online SupplementDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  4. Gold’s Missing Anchor: The Real-Rate Decoupling and the Reserve-Safety Premium
    Orhan Torul
    PDF DOI DeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  5. Two Venues, One Policy Event: Measuring Repricing in Prediction Markets
    Orhan Torul
    PDF DOI Online AppendixDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  6. Pricing the Arsenal: Defense-Procurement Shocks in Financial and Local Labor Markets
    Orhan Torul
    PDF DOI DeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  7. Election Probabilities and the Treasury Yield Curve
    Orhan Torul, Emrehan Aktuğ
    PDF DOI DeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  8. A Harmonic-Mean Decomposition of Sibling Correlations: Evidence from Turkey
    Orhan Torul, Oğuz Öztunalı
    PDF Link DeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  9. Missionary Infrastructure and the Deepening of Ottoman State Schooling
    Orhan Torul
    PDF DOI DeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  10. Silicon Experts: How Well Do LLMs Replicate Expert Economic Judgment?
    Orhan Torul, Mehmet Yiğit Gürdal
    PDF Link DeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  11. Political Capital: Real-Time Electoral Probabilities and the Value of Corporate Political Alignment
    Orhan Torul, Emrehan Aktuğ
    PDF DOI SlidesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  12. Bridging the Gap: Absolute and Relative Intergenerational Educational Mobility
    Orhan Torul
    PDF Online AppendixDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  13. Intergenerational Educational Mobility in Europe
    Orhan Torul, Oğuz Öztunalı
    PDF Link Online AppendixSlidesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  14. Transatlantic Differences in Taxation, Redistribution and Provision of Public Goods: How Fair is Inequality?
    Orhan Torul
    PDF SlidesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite

Other Publications

  1. Unequal Outcomes in Unequal Times: The Distributional Consequences of Turkey’s Unorthodox Policies
    Orhan Torul, Yavuz Selim Kaçmaz, Tolga Umut Kuzubaş, İslam Tarlacı New Perspectives on Turkey, 2025, 73, 32–51 2025
    PDF DOI Slides (English)Slides (Turkish)Blog (English)Blog (Turkish)DeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  2. The Seeds of Success: The Pivotal Role of First Round Cooperation in Public Goods Games
    Orhan Torul, Mehmet Yiğit Gürdal and Mustafa Yahşi Journal of the Economic Science Association, 2024, 10(1), 113–135 2024
    PDF DOI SlidesCodesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  3. Endogenous Risk Aversion In Real Business Cycle Models
    Orhan Torul Boğaziçi Journal: Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, 2024, 38(1), 25–46 2024
    PDF DOI CodesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  4. Marginal Cost of Public Funds under the Presence of Informality
    Orhan Torul, Ceyhun Elgin and Tuğçe Türk Review of Public Economics, 2022, 241(2), 79–103 2022
    PDF DOI CodesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  5. Risky Choices in a Natural Experiment from Turkey: Var Mısın Yok Musun?
    Orhan Torul, Ceyhun Elgin and Ertunç Aydoğdu Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 2021, 92, 101685 2021
    PDF DOI SlidesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  6. Socio-Demographics, Political Attitudes and the Informal Sector Employment: A Cross-Country Analysis
    Orhan Torul, Mustafa Metin Başbay and Ceyhun Elgin Economic Systems, 2018, 42(4), 556–568 2018
    PDF DOI Online AppendixDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLM
  7. On Income and Wealth Inequality in Turkey
    Orhan Torul, Oğuz Öztunalı Central Bank Review, 2018, 18(3), 95–106 2018
    PDF DOI SlidesCodesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  8. On the Business Cycle Implications of Alternative Risk Aversion Formulations
    Orhan Torul Central Bank Review, 2018, 18(2), 41–50 2018
    PDF DOI CodesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLM
  9. A Note on Labor-Search Models
    Orhan Torul Boğaziçi Journal: Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, 2017, 31(2), 1–21 2017
    PDF DOI CodesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  10. Energy Consumption and the Size of the Informal Economy
    Orhan Torul, Mustafa Metin Başbay and Ceyhun Elgin Economics E-Journal, 2016, 10(2016-14), 1–28 2016
    PDF DOI CodesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  11. Asymmetric Effects of Oil Prices on the Manufacturing Sector in Turkey
    Orhan Torul, C. Emre Alper Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 2010, 6(1), 90–105 2010
    PDF DOI DeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  12. Asymmetric Adjustment of Retail Gasoline Prices in Turkey to World Crude Oil Price Changes: The Role of Taxes
    Orhan Torul, C. Emre Alper Economics Bulletin, 2009, 29 (2), 775–787 2009
    PDF Link PDFDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  13. Oil Prices, Aggregate Economic Activity and Global Liquidity Conditions: Evidence from Turkey
    Orhan Torul, C. Emre Alper Economics Bulletin, 2008, 17(4), 1–8 2008
    PDF Link PDFSlidesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  14. Intergenerational Educational Mobility and Preferences for Redistribution in Europe
    Orhan Torul, Oğuz Öztunalı Journal of Income Distribution, Forthcoming
    Forthcoming PDF Link PDFOnline AppendixDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  15. A Note on the Intertemporal Labor Dynamics in Turkey
    Orhan Torul, Serdar Selçuk Economics Bulletin, 2016, 36(4), 2063–2079
    PDF Link DeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite

DeepDive is a Gemini Notebook-generated two-host audio conversation. VideoLM is a Gemini Notebook-generated video overview. InfoLM is Gemini Notebook-generated infographics.

If you have trouble accessing any links, please email orhan.torul@bogazici.edu.tr.