Working Papers

← Research

  1. Price Discovery Across Political Prediction Markets: Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
    Orhan Torul, Emrehan Aktuğ 2024
    PDF DOI DeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  2. The Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule: Evidence from Prediction Markets
    Orhan Torul, Emrehan Aktuğ
    PDF Link PDFDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  3. Calibration as a Channel for Discretization Error
    Orhan Torul
    PDF Online SupplementDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  4. Gold’s Missing Anchor: The Real-Rate Decoupling and the Reserve-Safety Premium
    Orhan Torul
    PDF DOI DeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  5. Two Venues, One Policy Event: Measuring Repricing in Prediction Markets
    Orhan Torul
    PDF DOI Online AppendixDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  6. Pricing the Arsenal: Defense-Procurement Shocks in Financial and Local Labor Markets
    Orhan Torul
    PDF DOI DeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  7. Election Probabilities and the Treasury Yield Curve
    Orhan Torul, Emrehan Aktuğ
    PDF DOI DeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  8. A Harmonic-Mean Decomposition of Sibling Correlations: Evidence from Turkey
    Orhan Torul, Oğuz Öztunalı
    PDF Link DeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  9. Missionary Infrastructure and the Deepening of Ottoman State Schooling
    Orhan Torul
    PDF DOI DeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  10. Silicon Experts: How Well Do LLMs Replicate Expert Economic Judgment?
    Orhan Torul, Mehmet Yiğit Gürdal
    PDF Link DeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  11. Political Capital: Real-Time Electoral Probabilities and the Value of Corporate Political Alignment
    Orhan Torul, Emrehan Aktuğ
    PDF DOI SlidesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  12. Bridging the Gap: Absolute and Relative Intergenerational Educational Mobility
    Orhan Torul
    PDF Online AppendixDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  13. Intergenerational Educational Mobility in Europe
    Orhan Torul, Oğuz Öztunalı
    PDF Link Online AppendixSlidesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite
  14. Transatlantic Differences in Taxation, Redistribution and Provision of Public Goods: How Fair is Inequality?
    Orhan Torul
    PDF SlidesDeepDiveVideoLMInfoLMCite

DeepDive is a Gemini Notebook-generated two-host audio conversation. VideoLM is a Gemini Notebook-generated video overview. InfoLM is Gemini Notebook-generated infographics.

If you have trouble accessing any links, please email orhan.torul@bogazici.edu.tr.